The Dunning Kruger Effect is much more prevalent than first realized. Whether online, with friends, or with family, it is common to find people who speak as if they are experts in a field they know little to nothing about. Your cousin, who is an engineer, lectures you every Thanksgiving on politics, but half of what he says sounds nonsensical at best. Or your unhealthy friend suddenly acts like he knows everything about nutrition and exercise. You’ve likely perpetrated this too. Internet forums and social media platforms have served to exacerbate this tendency.
Ego Vs. Data
88% of American drivers, when asked, will rate themselves as being “above average” in terms of their driving skills. Studies at software companies have shown that 32–42% of engineers will place their skills in their company’s “top 5%”. On average, humans rate themselves better than most. But that’s not statistically possible! Most people cannot be above average.
Most surprisingly, or unsurprisingly, those with the least skills or knowledge in an area are actually the most likely to overrate their skills to the greatest extent. This is because their lack of knowledge on the subject is so considerable, they are blind to their own incompetence, unable to realize their errors. This is known as the Dunning Kruger Effect.
People with moderate amounts of expertise also tend to have the least confidence in their abilities. This is because while they have learned enough to cover their blind spots, they now recognize the vast complexity of the subject at hand and how much they have left to learn. Lastly, there are experts who are more confident in their knowledge. They realize they are experts, however with this comes an understanding of the subject’s complexity. This means that even with recognizing their expertise, they know they can always learn more; their confidence never reaches the height of those with the least knowledge. Even here, experts can be rigid in their thought processes and approaches to a subject, limiting their ability to be effective (we’ll talk about this in a future musing).
How to Avoid Being “Dunning Kruger’d”
Online, the Dunning Kruger Effect is everywhere, especially when it comes to political issues. Suddenly, everyone’s an expert. We have all seen it. A friend of ours, who has probably never read a book on political science, begins to tweet or post Marxist, postmodernist, free-market fundamentalist, or conspiracy theorist content ad nauseam. They assert their takes with such bravado and confidence, yet the content is anything but insightful, either nonsensical or basic 101 level. Any disagreement is met with paragraphs that refute what you say with an emotional argument, not an academic one.
This has become a massive problem on social media. Millions of people fall victim to the Dunning Kruger Effect and then argue with each other or take refuge in mutually reinforcing echo chambers. It is straightforward to spot when someone else is falling victim to it, but what about yourself?
First, the easiest way to avoid being “Dunning Kruger’d” is to be aware of it. Merely having this psychological phenomenon on your radar can allow you to be more mindful of your conduct and confidence.
Secondly, to avoid falling into this trap, always assume there is more to the story. Be inquisitive. As Socrates said, “I know that I know nothing.” Assume for every bit of information you know on a subject, there is 10x (or 100x) more you do not know. Especially when it comes to subjects such as finance, politics, or science, you will never know it all. No one ever could. Think before you post, do the research, read the books, and take your emotion out of it.
At macrovo, we aim to create a platform for discourse and information-sharing where people appreciate the importance of due diligence, open-mindedness, doing their research, and nuance. The Dunning Kruger Effect will never go away, but at macrovo, we strive for it to be minimized.
Want to experience a higher quality of information over mere quantity? Do you value your attention and time? If so, check out macrovo.com.
~Team macrovo
